International Risk Factors Occurring in the Caspian Sea Region

From the perspective of structural realism, the category of international risk can be defined as a possibility of a sudden and unexpected change which may lead to negative outcomes. The aim of the article is to analyze and show international risk factors present in the Caspian Sea region. In the context of various variables of geostrategic character, the region seems prone to potential threats. The research applied the method of the analysis of strategic narratives, which made it possible to distinguish the most important risk factors in the context of the policy followed by global and regional superpowers: 1) political factors and international strategy; 2) extracting energy resources and the geopolitics of pipelines; 3) frozen territorial and ethnic conflicts; 4) economic factors; 5) military factors. The results show that for the majority of players the lack of stability is beneficial and they do not strive to solve the contentious issues at all costs.

CZYNNIKI RYZYKA MIĘDZYNARODOWEGO WYSTĘPUJĄCE W REGIONIE MORZA KASPIJSKIEGO

Kategoria ryzyka międzynarodowego z perspektywy realizmu strukturalnego może być zdefiniowana jako możliwość wystąpienia nagłej i nieoczekiwanej zmiany o negatywnych konsekwencjach. Celem artykułu jest analiza i wskazanie czynników ryzyka międzynarodowego obecnych w regionie Morza Kaspijskiego, który w kontekście syntezy wielu zmiennych o charakterze geostrategicznym wydaje się być podatny na występowanie potencjalnych zagrożeń. W badaniach zastosowano metodę analizy narracji strategicznych, która pozwoliła na wyodrębnienie najważniejszych czynników ryzyka w kontekście polityki mocarstw globalnych i regionalnych: 1) czynniki polityczne i strategia międzynarodowa; 2) wydobycie surowców energetycznych i geopolityka rurociągów; 3) zamrożone konflikty etniczne i terytorialne; 4) czynniki ekonomiczne; oraz 5) czynniki militarne. Wyniki wskazują, że dla większości graczy brak stabilizacji jest korzystny i nie dążą oni do rozwiązania spornych kwestii za wszelką cenę.

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