Regress of the West and the Emerging of New World Order: The Case of NATO

Uncertainty is the notion that can be a one-word description of the state of global affairs. Tensions in the world order architecture are symptoms of its ongoing transformation. The purpose of the article is to explore the reasons, manifestations and direction of this change. The prime assumption of the analysis is the regress of the West. NATO as a strategic bridge between two centers of the West – Europe and the United States – is subjected to scientific investigation to examine its possible role in reestablishment of the relative power of the West and regaining its defining capabilities in the world order in statu nascendi. The analysis is supplemented by two scenarios of possible trajectories of world order transformation.

REGRES ZACHODU I WYŁANIAJĄCY SIĘ NOWY PORZĄDEK ŚWIATOWY. PRZYPADEK NATO

Jako opis aktualnej sytuacji na świecie może posłużyć jedno słowo – niepewność. Napięcia z niej wynikające są symptomami zmian zachodzących w architekturze porządku światowego. Celem niniejszego artykułu jest zbadanie przyczyn, objawów i kierunków tych zmian. Fundamentem analizy jest obserwowany regres Zachodu. NATO jako strategiczny most łączący dwa jego centra – Europę i Stany Zjednoczone – zostało poddane naukowej eksploracji, by zidentyfikować możliwości jego wykorzystania jako instrumentu przywracającego relatywną siłę Zachodu oraz odtworzenia potencjału określania parametrów wyłaniającego się porządku światowego. Analiza została wzbogacona o dwa scenariusze potencjalnego kierunku transformacji wspomnianego porządku światowego.

BIBLIOGRAFIA:

• Acharya, A. (2012). Comparative Regionalism: A Field Whose Time Has Come? The International Spectator, 47(1), 3–15. DOI: 10.1080/03932729.2012.655004.
• Adler, E. (2013). Constructivism in International Relations: Sources, Contributions, and Debates. In: W. Carlsnaes, T. Risse, & B.A. Simmons (eds.), Handbook of International Relations (pp. 112–145). London: Sage.
• Allan, B.B, Vucetic, S., & Hopf, T. (2018). The Distribution of Identity and the Future of International Order: China’s Hegemonic Prospect. International Organization, 72(4), 839–869. DOI: 10.1017/S0020818318000267.
• Anderlini, J. (2018). China and Russia’s Dangerous Liaison. Retrieved from: https://www.ft.com/content/1b4e6d78-9973-11e8-9702-5946bae86e6d.
• Barma, N., Ratner, E., & Weber, S. (2007). Report and Retort: A World Without the West. he
• National Interest. July 1. Retrieved from: https://nationalinterest.org/article/reportand-retort-a-world-without-the-west-1658?fbclid=IwAR1kA7vwHzc-aDNP5-hRuaIBWaHp5DY1krVN-H0S28BWQJ-54bbHTT5INJY.
• Bonnett, A. (2004). The Idea of the West: Culture, Politics and History. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Brands, H. (2016). Making the Unipolar Moment: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Rise of the Post-Cold War Order. New York: Cornell University Press.
• Brown, S. (1968). Scenarios in System Analysis. In: E.S. Quade, & W.I. Boucher (eds.), Systems Analysis and Policy Planning: Applications in Defense. A Report Prepared for United States Air Force Project Rand (pp. 298–311). New York: American Elsevier Publishing Company, Inc.
• Bull, H. (2012). The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics. Basingstoke, New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Buzan, B. (1993). From International System to International Society: Structural Realism and Regime Theory Meet the English School. International Organization, 47(3), 327–352.
• Carothers, T. (2008). Is a League of Democracies a Good Idea? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Foreign Policy for the Next President. May 19. Retrieved from: https://carnegieendowment.org/2008/05/19/is-league-of-democracies-good-ideapub-20135.
• China v America (2018). The Economist, 429(9114).
• Chodubski, A. (2009). Prognostyka jako wyzwanie metodologiczne w badaniu stosunkow międzynarodowych. Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, 16(2), 41–57.
• Choucri, N. (1974). Forecasting in International Relations: Problems and Prospects. International Interactions, 1(2), 63–86. DOI: 10.1080/03050627408434390.
• Christensen, B.J., & Kowalczyk, C. (2017). Introduction to Globalization: Strategies and Effects. In: B.J. Christensen, & C. Kowalczyk (eds.), Globalization: Strategies and Effects (pp. 1–16). Berlin: Springer.
• Czaputowicz, J. (2007). Teorie stosunkow międzynarodowych. Warszawa: PWN.
• Daalder, I., & Goldgeier, J. (2006). Global NATO. Foreign Affairs, 85(5), 105–113. DOI: 10.2307/20032073.
• Flockhart, T. (2016). The Coming Multi-Order World. Contemporary Security Policy, 37(1), 3–30. DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2016.1150053.
• Frankowski, P. (2010). One World – Many “Orders”? In: S.F. Krishna-Hensel (ed.), Order and Disorder in the International System (pp. 97–115). Aldershot: Ashgate.
• Global Risk Report (2018). Geneva: World Economic Forum.
• Global Trends: Paradox of Progress (2017). Washington, D.C.: National Intelligence Council.
• Haass, R. (2017). World Order 2.0: The Case for Sovereign Obligation. Foreign Affairs, 96(1), 2–10.
• Herms Drath, V. (2006). Toward a New Atlanticism. American Foreign Policy Interests, 28(6), 425–431. DOI: 10.1080/10803920601072017.
• Hettne, B. (1997). Development, Security and World Order: A Regionalist Approach. The European Journal of Development Research, 9(1), 83–106. DOI: 10.1080/09578819708426678.
• Huntington, S. (2013). The Clash of Civilizations? In: Foreign Affairs Collection: The Clash at 20 (pp. 3–28). Retrieved from: http://home.sogang.ac.kr/sites/jaechun/courses/Lists/b6/Attachments/9/clash%20of%20civilization.pdf.
• Ikenberry, G.J. (2008). State Power and International Institutions: America and the Logic of Economic and Security Multilateralism. In: D. Bourantonis, K. Ifantis, & P. Tsakonas (eds.), Multilateralism and Security Institutions in an Era of Globalization (pp. 21–42). London and New York: Routledge.
• Ikenberry, G.J. (2018). The End of Liberal International Order? International Affairs, 94(1), 7–23. DOI: 10.1093/ia/iix241.
• Kennedy, P. (1994). Mocarstwa świata. Narodziny, rozkwit i upadek. Warszawa: Książka i Wiedza.
• Khanna, P. (2008). Here Comes the Second World. New Perspectives Quarterly, 25(3), 13–17. DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5842.2008.00994.x.
• Kissinger, H. (2017). Porządek światowy. Wołowiec: Wydawnictwo Czarne.
• Krauthammer, C. (1990/1991). The Unipolar Moment. Foreign Affairs, 70(1), 23–33.
• Lamont, C. (2015). Research Methods in International Relations. London: Sage.
• Larner, W., & Walters, W. (2002). The Political Rationality of “New Regionalism”: Toward a Genealogy of the Region. Theory and Society, 31(3), 391–432. DOI: 10.1023/A:1016255120209.
• Long, D. (2006). NATO after Atlanticism. In: O. Croci, & A. Verdun (eds.), The Transatlantic Divide: Foreign and Security Policies in the Atlantic Alliance from Kosovo to Iraq (pp. 19–35). Manchester, New York: Manchester University Press.
• Mason, W.A., Conrey, F.R., & Smith, E.R. (2007). Situating Social Influence Processes: Dynamic, Multidirectional Flows of Influence within Social Networks. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 11(3), 279–300. DOI: 10.1177/1088868307301032.
• Office of the Director of National Intelligence Press Briefing 2008. November 20. Retrieved from: https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Speeches%20and%20Interviews/20081120_interview.pdf.
• Ratti, L. (2006). Post-Cold War NATO and International Relations Theory: The Case for Neo-Classical Realism. Journal of Transatlantic Studies, 4(1), 81–110. DOI: 10.1080/14794010608656841.
• Rose, G. (2012). Making Modernity Work: The Reconciliation of Capitalism and Democracy. In: G. Rose, & J. Tepperman (eds.), The Clash of Ideas: The Ideological Battles that Made the Modern World – And Will Shape the Future (pp. 2–20). New York: Council on Foreign Relations, Inc.
• Rynning, S. (2005). NATO Renewed: The Power and Purpose of Transatlantic Cooperation. New York, Houndmills: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Schwab, K. (2016). The Fourth Industrial Revolution. Geneva: World Economic Forum.
• Schwartz, P. (1996). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. New York: Currency Doubleday.
• Slaughter, A.M. (2011). International Relations, Principal Theories. Retrieved from: https://www.princeton.edu/~slaughtr/Articles/722_IntlRelPrincipalTheories_Slaughter_20110509zG.pdf.
• Sułek, M. (2010). Prognozowanie i symulacje międzynarodowe. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Scholar.
• Tartar, A., Rojanasakul, M., & Diamond, J.S. (2018). How China Is Buying Its Way into Europe. Retrieved from: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-chinabusiness-in-europe/.
• The North Atlantic Treaty, Washington D.C., 4 April 1949 (2018). Retrieved from: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm.
• Tonnesson, S. (2002). A ‘Global Civil War’? Security Dialogue, 33(3), 389–391.
• Tzifakis, N. (2012). Change in International Politics: An Introduction to the Contemporary Debate. In: N. Tzifakis (ed.), International Politics in Times of Change (pp. 1–14). Heidelberg, Dordrecht, London, New York: Springer. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642–21955-9_1.
• Van de Haar, E. (2011). Hayekian Spontaneous Order and the International Balance of Power. The Independent Review, 16(1), 101–118.
• Webber, M., Hallams, E., & Smith, M.A. (2014). Repairing NATO’s Motors. International Affairs, 90(4), 773–793. DOI: 10.1111/1468-2346.12140.
• Wendt, A. (1992). Anarchy Is What States Make of It: The Social Construction of Power Politics. International Organization, 46(2), 391–425. DOI: 10.1017/S0020818300027764.
• Wendt, A. (1995). Constructing International Politics. International Security, 20(1), 71–81. DOI: 10.2307/2539217.
• Wendt, A. (2008). Społeczna teoria stosunkow międzynarodowych. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Scholar.
• Wunderlich, J.U. (2007). Regionalism, Globalization and International Order: Europe and Southeast Asia. Hampshire, Burlington: Ashgate Publishing Limited.
• Yu, L. (2018). China’s Expanding Security Involvement in Africa: A Pillar for ‘China– Africa Community of Common Destiny’. Global Review, 9(4), 489–500. DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.12585.