Rising from the Ashes of Electoral Defeat : Reversal of Vlaams Belang’s Electoral Fortune in the Light of Supply-Side Explanation

Within the last few years, radical right-wing parties gained relevance in some European countries, shifting the position of marginal political rebel to being a serious competitor of the mainstream parties. To explain the emergence and volatile fortune of this party family, we resort to supply-side explanation, and we analyse the case of the Flemish Vlaams Belang (VB) which suffered severe electoral defeat in 2014, to be reborn five years later. The analysis is based on the existing data concerning party platform, shift in electoral support, campaign spending, and the findings from individual in-depth interviews conducted with people from party headquarter and party leadership. On this base we conclude that external-supply factors created an opportunity the VB could take advantage of, thanks to deliberate changes introduced in internal-supply variables after 2014 defeat.

ODRODZENIE Z POPIOŁÓW PORAŻKI WYBORCZEJ: ZWROT W WYBORCZYCH LOSACH VLAAMS BELANG W ŚWIETLE WYJAŚNIEŃ PODAŻOWYCH

W ciągu ostatnich kilku lat w niektórych krajach europejskich na znaczeniu zyskują radykalne partie prawicowe, przesuwając się z pozycji marginalnych w stronę poważnych konkurentów partii tzw. głównego nurtu. Aby wyjaśnić fenomen radykalnej prawicy, odwołujemy się do podejścia podażowego, analizując przypadek flamandzkiej partii Vlaams Belang (VB), która w 2014 r. poniosła dotkliwą porażkę wyborczą, by odrodzić się pięć lat później. Przeprowadzone analizy opierają się na danych pierwotnych pochodzących z indywidualnych wywiadów pogłębionych z przedstawicielami sztabu i kierownictwa partii oraz danych wtórnych dotyczących partyjnej platformy programowej, zmian poparcia wyborczego i wydatków na kampanię wyborczą. Na tej podstawie dochodzimy do wniosku, że zewnętrzne czynniki podażowe stworzyły szansę, którą partia VB była w stanie wykorzystać dzięki celowym zmianom wewnątrzpartyjnym wprowadzonym po porażce wyborczej w 2014 r.

BIBLIOGRAFIA:

• Bell, S. (2011). Do We Really Need a New ‘Constructivist Institutionalism’ to Explain Institutional Change? British Journal of Political Science, 41(4), 883–906. DOI: 10.1017/S0007123411000147.
• Bergman, M.E., & Flatt, H. (2020). Issue Diversification: Which Niche Parties Can Succeed Electorally by Broadening Their Agenda. Political Studies, 68(3), 710–730. DOI: 10.1177/0032321719865538.
• De Cleen, B. (2016). Representing ‘the People’: The Articulation of Nationalism and Populism in the Rhetoric of the Flemish Vlaams Belang. In: J. Jamin (Ed.). L’extrême droite en Europe (pp. 223–242). Brussels: Academia-Bruylant.
• De Jonge, L. (2019). The Populist Radical Right and the Media in the Benelux: Friend or Foe? International Journal of Press/Politics, 24(2), 189–209. DOI: 10.1177/1940161218821098.
• Delvaux, M. (2014, May 26). Vlaams Belang. Annemans aangeslagen: ‘Deze uitslag is barslecht’. Het Nieuwsblad. Retrieved from: https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20140523_077.
• Deschouwer, K. (1992). The Performance of Organizational Forms: A Conceptual Framework for the Understanding of Party Adaptation and Change. Revised version of paper presented at ECPR General Conference in Limerick, Ireland.
• Dézé, A. (2004). Between Adaptation, Differentiation and Distinction: Extreme Right- Wing Parties within Democratic Political Systems. In: R. Eatwell, & C. Mudde (Eds.). Western Democracies and the New Extreme Right Challenge (pp. 19–40). London: Routledge.
• Direction générale Institutions et Population (n.d.). Retrieved March 10, 2021 from: https://www.ibz.rrn.fgov.be/.
• Eatwell, R. (2003). Ten Theories of the Extreme Right. In: P.H. Merkl, & L. Weinberg (Eds.). Right-Wing Extremism in the Twenty-First Century (pp. 45–70). London: Frank Cass Publishers.
• Ernst, N., Blassnig, S., Engesser, S., Büchel, F., & Esser, F. (2019). Populists Prefer Social Media Over Talk Shows: An Analysis of Populist Messages and Stylistic Elements across Six Countries. Social Media + Society, 5(1), 1–14. DOI: 10.1177/2056305118823358.
• Hameleers, M., & Vliegenthart, R. (2020). The Rise of a Populist Zeitgeist? A Content Analysis of Populist Media Coverage in Newspapers Published between 1990 and 2017. Journalism Studies, 21(1), 19–36. DOI: 10.1080/1461670X.2019.1620114.
• Hooghe, L., Marks, G., & Wilson, C.J. (2002). Does Left/Right Structure Party Positions on European Integration? Comparative Political Studies, 35(8), 965–989. DOI: 10.1177/001041402236310.
• Ignazi, P. (2003). Belgium: Right Extremism and Ethnic Nationalism. In: P. Ignazi (Ed.). Extreme Right Parties in Western Europe (pp. 124–139). Oxford: Oxford University Press. DOI: 10.1093/0198293259.003.0008.
• Lefevere, J., Van Aelst, P., & Peeters, J. (2020). Campaigning Online and Offline: Different Ballgames? Presidentialization, Issue Attention and Negativity in Parties’ Facebook and Newspaper Ads in the 2019 Belgian General Elections. Politics of Low Countries, 3. Retrieved from: https://www.elevenjournals.com/tijdschrift/PLC/2020/3/PLC_2589-9929_2020_002_003_007.
• Maly, I. (2020). Algorithmic Populism and the Datafication and Gamification of the People by Flemish Interest in Belgium. Trabalhos em Linguistica Aplicada, 59(1), 444–468. DOI: 10.1590/01031813685881620200409.
• Mudde, C. (2007). Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe. Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, Sao Paulo: Cambridge University Press.
• OECD (2020). Profil statistique par pays: Belgique 2020/1. Retrieved from: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/profil-statistique-par-pays-belgique-2020-1_g2g9e87d-fr.
• Pacześniak, A., & Bachryj-Krzywaźnia, M. (2019). Electoral Defeat as ‘Mother of Party Change’: Towards Objective-Subjective Approach. Czech Journal of Political Science, 26(2), 122–134.
• Pauwels, T. (2011). Explaining the Strange Decline of the Populist Radical Right Vlaams Belang in Belgium: The Impact of Permanent Opposition. Acta Politica, 46(1), 60–82. DOI: 10.1057/ap.2010.17.
• Put, G.J., Vanden Eynde, G., & Maddens, B. (2019). De uitgaven van de Vlaamse partijen voor de federale, regionale en Europese verkiezingen van 26 mei 2019. Vives Beleidspaper. Retrieved from: https://feb.kuleuven.be/VIVES/publications/policy_papers/files/2019-08-de-uitgaven-van-de-vlaamse-partijen-voor-de-federale-regionale-eneuropese-verkiezingen-van-26-mei-2019.
• RepResent (2019, June 4). Les Flamands et les Wallons ont voté pour des partis différents le 26 mai – mais leurs avis divergent moins sur les politiques publiques qu’ils souhaitent.
• Rydgren, J. (2007). The Sociology of the Radical Right. Annual Review of Sociology, 33(1), 241–262. DOI: 10.1146/annurev.soc.33.040406.131752.
• Rydgren, J. (2008). Immigrations Sceptics, Xenophobes or Racists? Radical Right-Wing Voting in Six West European Countries. European Journal of Political Research, 47(6), 737–765. DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-6765.2008.00784.x.
• Schafraad, P., d’Haenens, L., Scheepers, P., & Wester, F. (2012). The Evolution of a Media Image: Newspaper Attention to the Flemish Far Right 1987–2004. Acta Politica, 47(4), 356–377. DOI: 10.1057/ap.2012.12.
• Van Erkel, P., Lefevere, J., Walgrave, S., Jennart, I., Kern, A., Marien S., & Baudewyns, P. (2020). Verschuivingen voor of tijdens de campagne? Verschuivingen in partijkeuze tijdens de Belgische verkiezingen van 2019. In: J.B. Pilet, P. Baudewyns, K. Deschouwer, A. Kern, & J. Lefevre (Eds.). De Belgen verheffen hun stem. Een analyse van het stemgedrag op 26 mei 2019 (pp. 27–56). Louvain: Presses Universitaires de Louvain.
• Van Haute, E., & Pauwels, T. (2016). The Vlaams Belang: Party Organization and Party Dynamics. In: R. Heinisch, & O. Mazzoleni (Eds.). Understanding Populist Party Organization: The Radical Right in Western Europe (pp. 49–77). New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Volkens, A., Burst, T., Krause, W., Lehmann, P., Matthieß, T., Merz, N., Regel, S., Weßels, B., & Zehnter, L. (2020). The Manifesto Data Collection. Manifesto Project (MRG/ CMP/MARPOR). Version 2020a. Berlin: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB). Retrieved September 9, 2020 from: https://manifesto-project.wzb.eu/. DOI: 10.25522/manifesto.mpds.2020a.
• VRT NWS (2014a). Vlaams Belang kiest in oktober opvolger Annemans. Retrieved from: https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2014/05/26/vlaams_belang_kiestinoktoberopvolgerannemans-1-1980651/.
• VRT NWS (2014b). Young MP to Lead Far-Right Vlaams Belang. Retrieved from: https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2014/09/20/young_mp_to_leadfar-rightvlaamsbelang-1-2095509/.
• VB_2019_01: IDI with MEP, and member of former party board, held on September 24, 2019
• VB_2019_02: IDI with MP, held on September 24, 2019
• VB_2019_03: IDI with member of party leadership, held on September 24, 2019
• VB_2019_04: IDI with member of party leadership, held on September 25, 2019
• VB_2019_05: IDI with MP, held on September 26, 2019