“Not The Economy, Stupid?” – Exploring the Potential Causes of a Future Polexit Departure from the EU

This paper explores the economic and non-economic factors that could potentially lead to a Polish decision to remain within or leave the EU, following a future potential Polexit referendum. The study aims to determine the relative impact of Polish citizens’ values and attitudes on their support for their country’s continued EU membership and integration, at such a crucial time. The research is based on a survey conducted in December 2021, with a stratified sample of 1,517 respondents, and a statistical analysis of the findings. The results suggest that the relative importance of these factors could vary considerably, with economic factors potentially playing a less significant role than sociocultural and political elements. We argue that this projected outcome is likely to be influenced by citizens’ socio-demographic backgrounds, their perceived levels of economic security or insecurity, and differences in their economic and non-economic values, thereby creating potential opportunities for future populist Eurosceptic politicians in Poland to exploit, underlining the potential implications of these findings.

REFERENCES:

• Arnársson, A., & Zoega, G. (2016). On the Causes of Brexit. European Journal of Political Economy, 55C, 301–323.
• Ashcroft, R. T., & Bevir, M. (2022). Brexit and the Myth of British National Identity. In M. B. Mark Bevir (Ed.), Interpreting Brexit: Reimagining Political Traditions (pp. 1–16). Springer.
• Balcer, A., Buras, P., Gromadzki, G., & Smolar, E. (2017). Polish Views of the EU: The Illusion of Consensus. Stefan Batory Foundation.
• Bayer, L. (2021, October 26). As EU seeks talks, Poland risks unravelling the bloc’s legal order. Politico EU. https://www.politico.eu/article/polish-legalwoes/
• Beaver, K., Skinner, G., & Spielman, D. (2021). 5 Years On: The Many Tribes of Brexit. Technical report. Ipsos MORI.
• Best, H., Lengyel, G., & Verzichelli, L. (Eds) (2012). The Europe of the Elites. A Study into the Europeanness of Europes Economic and Political Elites. Oxford University Press.
• Betlej, A., & Soler, U. (2019). Network Society Versus Societies of Networks: Brexit and the Issue of National Identity in Poland. In A. Betlej, R. Delina, B. Gavurova, K. Grabczuk, E. Huculova, A. Kutlu, M. Redo, L. Senderakova, & U. Soler (Eds.), European Dilemmas of the Brexit Era (pp. 18–36). Faculty of Organisation Studies in Novo Mesto.
• Bogado, N., Bytzek, E., & Steffens, M. C. (2023). The use of identity-related frames in electoral pledges and its effects on Euroscepticism in France and Germany. European Union Politics, 24(3), 516–538.
• Boomgaarden, H. G., Schuck, A. R., Elenbaas, M., & De Vreese, C. H. (2011). Mapping EU attitudes. Conceptual and Empirical Dimensions of Euroscepticism and EU Support. European Union Politics, 12(2), 241–266.
• Brack, N., & Startin, N. (2015). Introduction: Euroscepticism, from the Margins to the Mainstream. International Political Science Review, 36(3), 239– 249.
• Breeze, R. (2019). Positioning the People and Its Enemies: Populism and Nationalism in AfD and UKIP. Javnost-The Public, 26(1), 89–104.
• Broockman, D. E., Kalla, J. L., & Westwood, S. J. (2023). Does Affective Polarization Undermine Democratic Norms or Accountability? Maybe Not. American Journal of Political Science (John Wiley & Sons, Inc.), 67(3), 808–828.
• Buras, P. (2017). Europe and its Discontents: Poland’s Collision Course with the European Union. European Council on Foreign Relations, 1–14.
• Calhoun, C. (2017). Populism, Nationalism and Brexit. In W. Outhwaite (Ed.), Brexit: Sociological Responses (pp. 57–76). Anthem Press.
• Carl, N., Dennison, J., & Evans, G. (2019). European but not European Enough: An Explanation for Brexit. European Union Politics, 20(2), 282– 304.
• Castillo, O. P. (2023). Right‐Wing Eurosceptic Parties and the Strategic Use of Law. Journal of Common Market Studies, 61(5), 1125–1142.
• Ciavolino, E., Kozłowski, A. R., Valentino, C., Gatti, G., Krzykowski, G., & Fallon, G. (2023). Analyzing the Conceptual Model for Support for the EU membership in Poland using PLS-SEM. Social Indicators Research. Working paper ID: SOCI-D-23-01517.
• Cichocki, P. (2012). Polish Attitudes Towards the European Union. Przegląd Zachodni, 340, 265–277.
• Cisłak, A., Pyrczak, M., Mikiewicz, A., & Cichocka, A. (2020). Brexit and Polexit: Collective narcissism is associated with support for leaving the European Union. Social Psychological Bulletin, 15(1), 1–21.
• Clarke, H. D., Goodwin, M., & Whiteley, P. (2017a). Brexit. Cambridge University Press.
• Clarke, H. D., Goodwin, M., & Whiteley, P. (2017b). Brexit. Why Britain Voted to Leave the European Union. Cambridge University Press.
• Clarke, H. D., Goodwin, M., & Whiteley, P. (2017c). Why Britain Voted for Brexit: An Individual-Level Analysis of the 2016 Referendum Vote. Parliamentary Affairs, 70(3), 439–464.
• Coyle, D. (2016). Brexit and Globalization. In R. E. Baldwin (Ed.) Brexit Beckons: Thinking ahead by leading economists (pp. 23–27). Centre for Economic Policy Research.
• Curtice, J. (2017). Why leave won the UK’s EU referendum. Journal of Common Market Studies, 55, 19–37.
• Cutts, D., Goodwin, M. J., Heath, O., & Surridge, P. (2020). Brexit, the 2019 General Election and the Realignment of British Politics. The Political Quarterly, 91(1), 7–23.
• De Grauwe, P. (2016). What Future for the EU After Brexit? Intereconomics, 51(5), 249–251.
• De Vries, C. E. (2017). Benchmarking Brexit: How the British Decision to Leave Shapes EU Public Opinion. Journal of Common Market Studies, 55, 38–53.
• De Vries, C. E. (2018). Euroscepticism and the Future of European Integration. Oxford University Press.
• Diamond, P., Nedergaard, P., Rosamond, B., & Lequesne, C. (Eds.) (2018). The Routledge handbook of the politics of Brexit. Routledge Abingdon.
• Dijkstra, L., Poelman, H., & Rodrýguez-Pose, A. (2020). The Geography of EU Discontent. Regional Studies, 54(6), 737–753.
• Druxes, H., & Simpson, P. A. (2016). Introduction: Pegida as a European Far-Right Populist Movement. German Politics and Society, 34(4), 1–16.
• Duffy, B., Hewlett, K., McCrae, J. & Hall, J. (2020). Divided Britain? Polarisation and Fragmentation Trends in the UK. Technical report. Kings College London.
• Duszczyk, M. (2018). European Union at the Crossroads: Which Route Will Poland Take? In C. Schweiger, & A. Visvizi (Eds.), Central and Eastern Europe in the EU (pp. 73–89). Routledge.
• Evans, G., Heath, A., & Lalljee, M. (1996). Measuring Left-Right and Libertarian-Authoritarian Values in the British Electorate. British Journal of Sociology, 47(1), 93–112.
• Fabbrini, F. (2020). Brexit and the Future of the European Union. The Case for Constitutional Reforms. Oxford University Press.
• Favero, A. (2020). The Influence of Gender on Attitudes Towards the EU Among the Polish Winners of European Integration. European Political Science Review, 12(1), 19–34.
• Fetzer, T. (2019). Did austerity cause Brexit? American Economic Review, 109(11), 3849–3886.
• Florea, D., & Gales, N. (2021). Polexit – Is the Exit of Poland from the EU a Viable Option? European Journal of Law and Public Administration, 8(1), 29–38.
• Fomina, J. (2017). The Unlikely Eurosceptics: The Undercurrent AntiEuropean Attitudes Among the Young Poles and the Role of the Domestic Context. Polish Sociological Review, 198(2), 141–165.
• Fossum, J. E. (2023). In What Sense Does Right-Wing Populism Pose a Democratic Challenge for the European Union? Social & Legal Studies, 32(6), 930–952.
• Fukuyama, F. (2018). Identity: The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
• Gastinger, M. (2021). Introducing the EU Exit Index Measuring Each Member States Propensity to Leave the European Union. European Union Politics, 22(3), 566–585.
• Gidron, N., & Hall, P. A. (2017). The Politics of Social Status: Economic and Cultural Roots of the Populist Right. The British Journal of Sociology, 68(S1), S57–S84.
• Gietel-Basten, S. (2016). Why Brexit? The Toxic Mix of Immigration and Austerity. Population and Development Review, 4, 673–680.
• Gliszczyńska-Grabias, A., & Sadurski, W. (2023). Is It Polexit Yet? Comment on Case K 3/21 of 7 October 2021 by the Constitutional Tribunal of Poland. European Constitutional Law Review, 19(1), 163–181.
• Goodwin, M. J., & Heath, O. (2016). The 2016 Referendum, Brexit and the Left Behind: An Aggregate-level Analysis of the Result. The Political Quarterly, 87(3), 323–332.
• Goodwin, M., & Milazzo, C. (2017). Taking Back Control? Investigating the Role of Immigration in the 2016 Vote for Brexit. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 19(3), 450–464.
• Greven, T. (2016). The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Europe and the United States: A Comparative Perspective. Friedrich Ebert Foundation. http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id/12892.pdf
• Grzymala-Busse, A. (2019). The Failure of Europe’s Mainstream Parties. Journal of Democracy, 30(4), 35–47.
• Guerra, S. (2017). Without Losing My Religion: The Dilemmas of EU Integration in Poland. Culture and Society: Journal of Social Research, 8(2), 51– 68.
• Guerra, S. (2020). The Historical Roots of Euroscepticism in Poland. In M. Gilbert, & D. Pasquinucci (Eds.), Euroscepticisms. The Historical Roots of a Political Challenge (chapter 9, pp. 190–204). Brill.
• Halikiopoulou, D., & Vlandas, T. (2018). Voting to Leave: Economic Insecurity and the Brexit Vote. In B. Leruth, N. Startin, & S. Usherwood (Eds.), The Routledge Handbook of Euroscepticism (pp. 445–455). Routledge.
• Henderson, A., Jeffery, C., Wincott, D., & Wyn Jones, R. (2017). How Brexit was Made in England. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 19(4), 631–646.
• Hobolt, S. B. (2016). The Brexit Vote: A Divided Nation, a Divided Continent. Journal of European Public Policy, 23(9), 1259–1277.
• Hofelich, T. (2021). De facto differentiation in action: Why Poland will stay in the EU, with or without the blessing of Brussels. EUROPP Blog. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/10/22/de-factodifferentiationin-action-why-poland-will-stay-in-the-eu-with-or-without-the-blessing-ofbrussels/
• Hooghe, L., & Marks, G. (2005). Calculation, Community and Cues: Public Opinion on European Integration. European Union Politics, 6(4), 419–443.
• Hooghe, L., & Marks, G. (2007). Sources of Euroscepticism. Acta Politica, 42(2), 119–127.
• Hubner, D. (2020). Talking Europe at the Time of Brexit, Scholar Publishing House.
• Inglehart, R., & Norris, P. (2017). Trump and the Populist Authoritarian Parties: The Silent Revolution in Reverse. Perspectives on Politics, 15(2), 443– 454.
• Kaczorowska, M. (2016). Krajobraz polityczny po Brexicie. International Affairs, 69(3).
• Kaufmann, E. (2016). Its NOT the Economy, Stupid: Brexit as a Story of Personal Values. EUROPP Blog. http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/70413
• Kołodziejczyk, K. (2016). Poland in the European Union. Ten Years of Membership. UNISCI Journal, 40, 9–26.
• Kozłowski, A. R. (2019). Populism as a Factor of Destabilisation in Consolidated Democracies. The NISPAcee Journal of Public Administration and Policy, XII(2), 81–108.
• Leconte, C. (2010). Understanding Euroscepticism. Palgrave Macmillan.
• Leonard, M., & Torreblanca, J. I. (2014). The Eurosceptic Surge and How to Respond to It. European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
• Leruth, B., Ganzle, S., & Trondal, J. (2019). Exploring Differentiated Disintegration in a Post-Brexit European Union. Journal of Common Market Studies, 57(5), 1013–1030.
• Lindell, J., & Ibrahim, J. (2021). Something Old, Something New? The UK Space of Political Attitudes After the Brexit Referendum. Sociological Research Online, 26(3), 505–524.
• Lord, C. (2017). The legitimacy of exits from the European Union. Journal of European Integration, 39(5), 499–513.
• Markowski, R. (2020). Plurality Support for Democratic Decay: The 2019 Polish Parliamentary Election. West European Politics, 43(7), 1513–1525.
• Markowski, R., & Tucker, J. A. (2010). Euroscepticism and the Emergence of Political Parties in Poland. Party politics, 16(4), 523–548.
• Matti, J., & Zhou, Y. (2017). The Political Economy of Brexit. Explaining the Vote. Applied Economics Letters, 24(16), 1131–1134.
• Mayne, Q., & Katsanidou, A. (2023). Subnational economic conditions and the changing geography of mass Euroscepticism: A longitudinal analysis. European Journal of Political Research, 62(3), 742–760.
• McAndrew, S. (2020). Belonging, Believing, Behaving, and Brexit: Channels of Religiosity and Religious Identity in Support for Leaving the European Union. The British Journal of Sociology, 71(5), 867–897.
• McAndrew, S., Surridge, P., & Begum, N. (2017). Social Identity, Personality and Connectedness: Probing the Identity and Community Divides Behind Brexit. Working paper. SocArXiv.
• McLaren, L. M. (2006). Identity, Interests and Attitudes to European Integration. Palgrave Macmillan.
• McLaren, L. M. (2007). Explaining Mass-Level Euroscepticism: Identity, Interests, and Institutional Distrust. Acta Politica, 42, 233–251.
• Morgan, J., & Patomäki, H. (Eds.) (2018). Brexit and the Political Economy of Fragmentation: Things Fall Apart. Routledge.
• Oliver, T. (2017). Never Mind the Brexit? Britain, Europe, the World and Brexit. International Politics, 54(4), 519–532.
• Patel, O., & Reh, C. (2016). Brexit: The consequences for the EU’s political system. UCL Constitution Unit Briefing Paper, Economic and Social Research Council.
• Raines, T., Goodwin, M. J., & Cutts, D. (2017). Europe Political Tribes: Exploring the Diversity of Views Across the EU. Chatham House.
• Roe-Crines, A., & Heppell, T. (2020). Legitimising Euroscepticism? The construction, delivery and significance of the Bruges speech. Contemporary British History, 34(2), 204–227.
• Rokeach, M. (1973). The Nature of Human Values. Free Press.
• Rosamond, B. (2016). Brexit and the Problem of European Disintegration. Journal of Contemporary European Research, 12(4).
• Samecki, P. et al. (2016). Scenariusze i ryzyka dla przyszłości integracji europejskiej: Jakie zmiany może przynieść Brexit? Sprawy Międzynarodowe, 4, 64–71.
• Sampson, T. (2017). Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(4), 163–84.
• Sanders, K., Molina Hurtado, M. J., & Zoragastua, J. (2017). Populism and Exclusionary Narratives: The other in Podemos 2014 European Union Election Campaign. European Journal of Communication, 32(6), 552–567.
• Schmidt, V. A. (2019). Politicization in the EU: Between National Politics and EU Political Dynamics. Journal of European Public Policy, 26(7), 1018– 1036.
• Schütze, S. (2023). Left Behind Together and Voting for Populism: Regional Out-Migration, Civic Engagement and the Electoral Success of Populist Radical Right Parties. Social Sciences (2076-0760), 12(8).
• Shotter, J., & Fleming, S. (2021, October 8). Polexit Talk Grows After Warsaw Challenges Brussels Over EU Law. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/6abff800-1b3e-4e73-ad66-2cbb9e280a3d
• Shotter, J., & Foy, H. (2021, October 22). How Poland became Europe’s biggest rebel. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/d59e9054-95ba4093-b1cf-3ead1bae0982
• Slomczynski, K. M., & Shabad, G. (2003). Dynamics of support for European integration in post-communist Poland. European Journal of Political Economy, 42(4), 503–539.
• Smith, G., & Woodhead, L. (2018). Religion and Brexit: Populism and the Church of England. Religion, State and Society, 46(3), 206–223.
• Sobolewska, M., & Ford, R. (2019). British Culture Wars? Brexit and the Future Politics of Immigration and Ethnic Diversity. The Political Quarterly, 90(S2), 142–154.
• Sørensen, C. (2008). Love me, love me not... A typology of public euroscepticism. Working paper No 101. Sussex European Institute.
• Soyaltin-Colella, D., Saatçiođlu, B., & Buhari Gülmez, D. (2023). Illiberal challenges to the European Union’s legitimacy from within and without: the rule of law and refugee crises. Journal of Contemporary European Studies, 31(4), 1192–1205.
• Startin, N. (2015). Have we reached a tipping point? The mainstreaming of Euroscepticism in the UK. International Political Science Review, 36(3), 311– 323.
• Stokes, B. (2016). Euroskepticism Beyond Brexit. Pew Research Center, 7, 1–16.
• Surridge, P. (2018). Brexit, British Politics, and the Left-Right Divide. Political Insight, 9(4), 4–7.
• Surridge, P. (2021). Brexit, British Politics and Values, Technical report, UK in a Changing Europe.
• Swales, K. (2016). Understanding the Leave Vote. NatCen Social Research, 7.
• Szczerbiak, A. (2008). Opposing Europe or Problematizing Europe? Euroscepticism and Eurorealism in the Polish Party System. In A. Szczerbiak, & P. Taggart (Eds.), Case Studies and Country Surveys. Opposing Europe? The Comparative Party Politics of Euroscepticism (Vol. I, pp. 221–242). Oxford University Press.
• Szczerbiak, A. (2021). How will Poland’s Dispute with the EU Affect its National Politics? EUROPP Blog. http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/113067
• Szczerbiak, A., & Taggart, P. (2017). Contemporary Research on Euroscepticism: The State of the Art. In B. Leruth, N. Startin, & S. Usherwood (Eds.), The Routledge Handbook of Euroscepticism (pp. 11–21). Routledge.
• Taggart, P. & Szczerbiak, A. (2021). Putting Brexit into perspective: the effect of the Eurozone and migration crises and Brexit on Euroscepticism in European states. In S. Bulmer, & L. Quaglia (Eds.), The Politics and Economics of Brexit (pp. 106–126). Routledge.
• Torreblanca, J. I., & Leonard, M. (2013). The Continent-wide Rise of Euroscepticism. The pan-European think-tank, The European Council on Foreign Relations.
• Trosiak, C. (2020). Conditions for Initiating the Procedure of Poland’s Withdrawal from the European Union. Rocznik Integracji Europejskiej, 14, 215–226.
• Ultan, M. Ö. (2023). Euroscepticism at the National and European Levels and Its Reflection in the European Parliament Roll Call Votes. Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics and International Relations, 5(1), 23–45.
• Usherwood, S., Leruth, B., & Startin, N. (2018). Conclusion: Euroscepticism and European (dis)integration in the age of Brexit. In B. Leruth, N. Startin and S. Usherwood (Eds.), The Routledge Handbook of Euroscepticism (pp. 468–477). Routledge.
• Usherwood, S., & Startin, N. (2013). Euroscepticism as a persistent phenomenon. Journal of Common Market Studies, 51(1), 1–16.
• Van Klingeren, M., Boomgaarden, H. G., & De Vreese, C. H. (2013). Going Soft or Staying Soft: Have Identity Factors Become More Important than Economic Rationale when Explaining Euroscepticism? Journal of European Integration, 35(6), 689–704.
• Vasilopoulou, S. (2013). Continuity and Change in the Study of Euroscepticism: Plus ¸ca Change? Journal of Common Market Studies, 51(1), 153–168.
• Vasilopoulou, S. (2016). UK Euroscepticism and the Brexit Referendum. The Political Quarterly, 87(2), 219–227.
• Vasilopoulou, S. (2017). Theory, Concepts and Research Design in the Study of Euroscepticism. In S. Vasilopoulou (Ed.), The Routledge Handbook of Euroscepticism (pp. 22–35). Routledge.
• Veltri, G. A., Redd, R., Mannarini, T., & Salvatore, S. (2019). The Identity of Brexit: A Cultural Psychology Analysis. Journal of Community & Applied Social Psychology, 29(1), 18–31.
• Wood, J. D. G., & Ausserladscheider, V. (2021). Populism, Brexit, and the Manufactured Crisis of British Neoliberalism. Review of International Political Economy, 28(6), 1487–1508.
• Zalas-Kamińska, K. (2019). Polexit Narrative: A Case Study in Terms of Political Communication. Athenaeum. Polskie Studia Politologiczne, 64(4), 203–215.
• Zappettini, F., & Krzyzanowski, M. (2019). The Critical Juncture of Brexit in Media & Political Discourses: From National-Populist Imaginary to CrossNational Social and Political Crisis. Critical Discourse Studies, 16(4), 381–388.