The Russian Federation and Polish Security: a Risk Analysis

Poland considers the Russian Federation as a major threat for its security; these fears have considerably increased since the Russian aggression against Ukraine in early 2022. This article analyses Russia’s policy towards Poland through the risk matrix, taking into account four elements: Poland’s assets, existing threats, vulnerabilities and finally countermeasures adopted by Poland. It focuses on four security sectors: military, economic, political, and societal. The risk of a full-scale military attack on Poland is possible, though a low intensity ‘hybrid’ conflict seems more probable. The overall dependence of the Polish economy on Russia (trade, foreign direct investments) is relatively narrow. However, the energy ties remain relatively strong, which constitutes a risk for Poland, especially since both EU and Russia strive to limit their cooperation in the field of energy. In the political sector, there is a high risk that Russia’s interference could contribute to the deconstruction of the existing political system based on European values, such as democracy and the rule of law. In the societal sector, the assessment of Poland’s vulnerability is not unanimous. Russia has failed to successfully fuel a Polish-Ukrainian societal conflict. Poland had to face however two refugee crises – on Belarussian (2021) and on the Ukrainian (2022) borders; in both cases they were at least indirectly provoked by the Russian Federation.

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