The rivalry between the United States and China in the Southeast Asia in 2017 and 2018.

The rivalry of great powers between the United States and China embraces all regions of East Asia, including Southeast Asia and the South China Sea. The situation changed and became even more dynamic at the beginning of 2017, with the arrival of Donald Trump, the new American President. Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from the Trans Pacific Partnership had a significant influence on the situation in Southeast Asia and started a trade war with China as well as a race in the field of new technologies. The Trump Administration also introduced a new strategy of “free and open Indo – Pacific” which shared some basic strategic similarities with its predecessor – the Pivot. Washington has labeled China a strategic rival and a military threat. The American activities are strongly supported by Japan. The Japanese prime minister Shinzō Abe considers supporting Trump’s policy of trade war and general confrontation with China is in Japanese national interest. China was surprised by the evolution of American policy and its reaction was rather defensive. The Chinese president Xi Jinping suspects that the US’s real goal is to prevent China from rising or projecting power and influence abroad, especially in Southeast Asia and South China Sea. However China’s leadership has firmly decided to oppose the American administration policy, particularly in the above mentioned region.
The countries of the region of Southeast Asia started to be severely challenged by China but also by the United States and Japan, especially in the South Chinese Sea. The majority of these countries are likely to continue the “hedge” policy.

The election of Joseph Biden for the office of the President of the United States has brought expectations of fundamental change in American foreign policy, including policy toward the Asia-Pacific/Indo-Pacific region. As observed in the last few months, the reality has been more complex as definite changes in the US Indo-Pacific policy are not as visible as expected. It is especially in respect of the US policy toward China being more a continuation than a change from Donald Trump’s approach. Changes are rhetorical rather than actual policies. The situation is different in the case of alliances, as Joe Biden offers much more commitment to allies like Japan or South Korea. Also, multilateral dimensions (both regional and global) witness some – however still limited – change. The main goal is to make a comparative analysis of Joe Biden’s policy toward Asia, referring to the administrations of Barack Obama and Donald Trump. Hence the strategies of pivot/re-balance toward the Asia of Obama, and the free and open Indo-Pacific strategy of Trump, will be examined. The analysis refers to the complex interdependence theory and the power transition theory. Methodologically, it is based on document analysis with comparative analysis.

Strategic ambiguity, or the deliberate policy of uncertainty as to whether the United States would use force to defend Taiwan against an invasion by the People's Republic of China, has been the centrepiece of US policy towards the Taiwan issue for decades. This paper discusses the factors driving the redefinition of strategic ambiguity and its recalibration throughout Donald Trump's presidency (2017–2021). The fundamental driver of this change was to balance the rising power of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The paper applied offensive realism as a theoretical framework for its analysis. Under President Donald Trump, Washington modified its policy of strategic ambiguity, explicitly framing relations with Taiwan within a broader Indo-Pacific strategy. While the US retained key elements of strategic ambiguity, including the 'One China' policy, it added new features to deploy it offensively against Beijing's growing regional hegemony. The increased dynamism and unpredictability of relations with Taiwan were matched by a welcoming attitude towards strengthening Taiwanese identity and highlighting the systemic differences between communist China and democratic Taiwan. America stepped up arms sales and encouraged Taiwan to build its self-defence capabilities. Washington engaged in countering Chinese attempts to isolate Taiwan internationally and included it in restructuring global supply chains. Although the United States has not formally revised the boundaries of the 'One China' policy, the modification of strategic ambiguity increased Taiwan's prominence in US-China power competition and pushed back the prospect of peaceful unification.

AUKUS - will the Indo-Pacific “little NATO” limit Chinese maritime expansion?

On September 15, 2021, the United States of America, United Kingdom and Australia signed the trilateral defense agreement (AUKUS). The first two countries are to help Australia build attack nuclear submarines (SSN). It is clear that the purpose of the agrement is to further restrict the influence of the PRC in the region. The agreement was immediately criticized by People’s Republic of China. Voices of criticism or concern also came from other directions, such as from some ASEAN countries, European allies of the USA or India. The following article is an attempt to answer the question: to what extent will the establishment of AUKUS strengthen the regional position of the United States in the maritime dimension and contribute to limiting the expansion of China.

The main consequence of rapidly progressing globalization is the strengthening of new, dynamically developing economies. The paper includes the author’s reflections on the European Union’s strategy for the Indo-Pacific region, which is responsible for 60% of global GDP and 2/3 of global economic growth. As a result, this makes that neighborhood an area of conflicting interests and rivalry between the economically strongest state entities. Despite the relatively late involvement of other foreign players in the region, the European Union is also trying to strengthen its position in this area. On September 16, 2021, the “EU Cooperation Strategy in the Indo-Pacific Region” was established. The author of the paper will try to answer two main research questions: (1) What influences the shape of the European strategy towards the Indo-Pacific region? and (2) What obstacles does the European Union face in the process of shaping its relations with representatives of this region?

The importance of relations with Australia and New Zealand as part of the UK’s post-Brexit engagement in the Indo-Pacific region

In the geopolitical situation in which Great Britain found itself after its withdrawal from the European Union in 2020, it was necessary to develop a new foreign and security policy strategy. The flagship concept of ‘Global Britain’ assumes the reorientation of the United Kingdom outside Europe and greater involvement in the security architecture of the Indo-Pacific region. The article examines to what extent the intention to strengthen relations with as likeminded partners in the Indo-Pacific region coincides with the assumptions of Australian and New Zealand policies. It has been shown that the former British dominions, which are part of the so-called Anglosphere, have been given a vital role in securing the UK’s position as a world leader. From the perspectives of the national interest of both countries, rebuilding ties with the former empire is considered an important strategic element, although giving it a priority in the current geopolitical realities is not possible. Australia and New Zealand put special emphasis on developing cooperation with the Indo-Pacific countries.

The aim of the paper is to study the European Union’s geoeconomics policy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. In recent times, the Indo-Pacific has been gaining attention of the global economic powers. On this issue, the EU has launched a cooperation policy in the IndoPacific. This study examines the EU’s comprehensive strategy for the expansion of its presence in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. The EU wants economic and security partnerships among the Indo-Pacific countries. Among the EU member states, the French government is much enthusiastic about strategic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. The European Union’s policy has been operating in the regions as an instrument of soft and hard power. The research highlighted that the EU implies the construction of structural strategic networks to intensify the high capacities in the projection of power. The EU uses the key approaches of hard and soft power to achieve transatlantic goals. The comparative case study method is useful to know the objectives and results of the research. In conclusion, the EU needs to establish a much stronger relationship among the pacific countries to counter the Chinese aggression and expansion in maritime diplomacy.

The analysis is based on theoretical assumptions characteristic of the multi-order world by Trine Flockhart concept. The main factor influencing the situation in the Indo-Pacific region is the conflict between two international orders, Chinese-led and American-led, which is economic but may take a military form in the future. The practical limitations of the article result from the complex process of analyzing and forecasting political phenomena in statu nascendi. The analysis contributes to the scientific discussion on the future of international relations in the Indo-Pacific region. The American-led order in the Indo-Pacific region is based on the institutionalized forms of cooperation involving Anglo-Saxon states based on identity factors determining their effectiveness. The US strategy for the Indo-Pacific is mainly based on the network of partnerships with the region’s countries and countries from other parts of the world supporting the American-led order in the region, especially the Anglo-Saxon countries. In addition to identity factors, the positive long-term experience of military cooperation between the Anglo-Saxon countries is significant. The escalation of the global conflict between the US and China will be conducive to further tightening this cooperation.

EU trade agreements with Indo-Pacific partners in the light of the provisions of the EU strategy for cooperation in the region

The article contains considerations on the regional trade agreements (RTAs) negotiated and concluded by the EU with its Indo-Pacific partners. The agreements were characterized in the context of the provisions of the strategy adopted in 2021 for this region, the aim of which is to increase the EU’s involvement in the Indo-Pacific, also by strengthening and deepening trade relations through RTAs. The analysis presented in the study showed that, in view of the huge potential and growing importance of this area in the global economy, these relations are of key importance for the EU’s economic interests, and the trade agreements negotiated, concluded and enforced constitute an important tool for implementing the Indo-Pacific strategy and pave the way towards strengthening the position of the EU there.