The national security strategy adopted in 2007 provided a detailed definition of security and identified its threats. The key threat to the Armenian state was considered to be the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The document indicated the Collective Security Treaty Organisation main guarantor of security, with Russia being Armenia’s main partner in bilateral relations. The second position in the strategy was assigned to cooperation with the NATO and the OSCE. One of the priorities identified was to intensify the economic and trade connections with the European Union and participation in the European Neighbourhood Policy as a step towards integration with European structures. As to bilateral relations, the most significant were Armenia’s contacts with Georgia and Iran. If we compare the assumptions of the strategy with the policy pursued by Armenia after 2007, it is clear that the measures taken are in line with the provisions of the document. By the end of 2016, the most serious threat to Armenia – the Nagorno-Karabakh issue – remained unresolved. Russia reinforced its position as Armenia’s strategic ally. The talks conducted between Armenia and the NATO are of little significance in view of the obligations assumed by Armenia. The same goes for the talks with the European Union after Armenia’s withdrawal from signing the association agreement, accession to the Eurasian Economic Union on 01 January 2015 and signing bilateral agreements with the Russian Federation. 

This paper aims to explain that the stable situation of Belarus is important for Western Europe and why any fluctuations may present a challenge for European integrity and stability. Belarus, since the beginning of its independence in 1991 seems to show a great willingness to cooperate closely with Russia, claiming Western Europe and NATO as a potential enemy. In reality, the Belarusian position is much more complicated and ambiguous. Despite it’s close military cooperation with Russia, different tensions between Minsk and Moscow regularly happen and Belarusian authorities are still looking for new foreign partners and new energy suppliers (what was clearly visible in the last months of 2016 and the first period of 2017). Russia, old Belarusian partner, may actually even pose a threat for Belarus, so the country’s authorities have a hard challenge to maintain its stability. Western countries may be open for a new chapter of cooperation with Minsk but any rapid changes in Belarusian foreign preferences may result in unpredictable results and Moscow reaction that – in turn – would be very challenging for the whole European stability and security. 

Political cooperation between Poland and Germany has not been running smoothly lately. It has been a long time since those relations had such bad press. The idea of the Center Against Expulsions, the matter of war reparations or discussions concerning the shape of the European Constitution are the issues which have made our relations colder. However, there is a area of co-operation, the military sphere, where co-operation runs exemplary. In this article I would like to draw attention to a few issues connected with this matter.

The Polish Political Science Yearbook invites all scholars, researchers and professionals to participate in the 7th PPSY International Seminar "Security in Central Europe: Confronting Uncertainty?" which takes place in Toruń (Poland) on April 24, 2018. The conference supports a special section of the current Volume 47 of 2018 of the journal and its objective is to discuss challenges of security and stability in Central Europe and to present current advancements in regional security studies.

Deadline for application: April 6, 2018, with the Online Form.

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In 2006 Dimitry Trenin stated that Russia left the West and began to work on creation of her own sphere on influence. The area of Russian activity in particular was the post-Soviet zone where Moscow wanted to rebuild their dominant position. Sergey Karaganow added: “Moscow has realized that she neither wants to nor she can afford to integrate with the West on the conditions proposed by the West – the type of integration without the right of veto”38. Alexander Dugin, an Euro-Asian ideologist claimed: “We proved that we did not give a damn about NATO and we were not afraid of it. We have the nuclear weapon and we are ready to use it. Russia crossed the line from which she can not withdraw anymore. This is a course for the revival of Russian sovereignty and the position of regional power – in practice, not just in words”39. The above quotations reflect the Russian attitude to the NATO and show the role of this organization for Russia. Undoubtedly, the Alliance is perceived by Russia as a threat and a rival. The reasons of such perception are primarily the Alliance’s claims to play the role of a “guardian” of global peace, attempts to interfere in the area recognized by Russia as her sphere of influence, strengthening the position of NATO in Eastern Europe and project of development new defence technologies such as missile defence. Since the 90s Russia consistently has been trying to undermine the importance of NATO and to put it into the frame of international structures of security governance. In 2010 minister Sergey Lavrov argued that NATO is a relic of a bygone era and should be subjugated to the principles of the UN Security Council.

This article focuses on the Central and Eastern European in the process of shaping their security relations. The aim of the paper is to present and analyze the evolution of security relations in the region under the aegis of the EU, NATO and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). The interplay of the institutions shows that the EU is not a single power in the European security system thus the maintenance of stable and peaceful relations depend mostly on cooperation between a number of institutions and groupings. The EU and NATO’ s role was central due to their policies of enlargement and the stabilization effects on third partner countries. The OSCE with its well promising position in Europe has been weaken due to decline of interests of major power states and its functions performed simultaneously by the EU and NATO. Both organizations have taken to a large extent the place of the OSCE.

  The objective of this article is to analyse the impact of the Spanish democratic transformation on its multilateral relations. It analyses the strategies of Spanish governments in the transformation era and the process of accession to NATO, the Council of Europe and the European Communities. Source analysis and criticism methods (applied mostly to Spanish- -language texts), as well as comparative analysis were employed for the needs of this article.
  Based on her research, the author concludes that changes to Spanish foreign policy were evolutionary in nature. Therefore, it took Spain several years to regain the full confidence of its partners. Before any breakthrough changes could occur in the multilateral dimension, Spain needed to normalise its bilateral relations.
  The democratic elections conducted on the 15th of June 1977 in Spain was the breakthrough without which no accession to any important international organisation could ever happen. As the event clinched the state’s democratisation, it paved the way for Spain to join soon the Council of Europe. The accession process for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was more complex. The Spanish political scene was divided in that matter. Spain’s accession to the European Communities was the longest process. It was subject not only to the state’s democratisation progress but also to economic issues.

The political transformation in Poland resulted in the reorientation of Polish policy in the field of understanding security. It found its reflection in newly defined policy directions, which were manifested in the search for new guarantees of security, development opportunities and giving a new character to Polish politics. The problem of ensuring state security in new geopolitical conditions is expressed in the adopted hierarchy of priorities for the implementation of the Polish raison d’etat. The implementation of the policy priorities means that Poland has a solid foundation for security. The Polish Army carries out many key tasks in it. The armed forces of the Republic of Poland became an element of the broad NATO security system. Building faith in defensive self-sufficiency, Poland distances itself more and more from Europe. Both threats and challenges require decision-making in matters of security and go beyond the traditionally understood security. As a consequence, Poland responds to both threats and challenges in the security policy of the Republic of Poland to a small extent.

The transformations of the North Atlantic Alliance in the wake of the 9/11 attacks and its mission in Afghanistan have proceeded hand in hand with the redefining of security interests in individual member states. Poland and Germany have also been affected by a polarization of views, particularly on the nature, place and role of NATO in today’s world. The countries’ geopolitics and their varying visions of European security have significantly affected their positions.

This paper presents some remarks on the situation of Poland in NATO. The problem of ‘predictability’ is analysed on the basis of a simple scheme (system, its environment, their interactions). The geopolitical analysis of this dynamic model leads to the conclusion that the future cannot be described as highly predictable, although some long-term scenarios seem to be relatively plausible and may be used in the construction of more realistic global and national/ regional strategies. The results of this analysis suggest global cooperation and regional integration.

Partnership NATO–Sweden

Article characterizes relations between most powerful military pact – Northern Atlantic Pact and neutral state – Sweden. In this article is analyzing cooperation on military ground, non-military ground and it is also analyzing aspects of cooperation involving neutral status of Sweden, Crimea annexation and growing danger from Russia. Studies connected to main theme of article were based on official documents od NATO, press notes or official releases. Main reason of article is to answer on question if neutral state can cooperate with NATO and can we say that between NATO and Sweden exists partnership relation. Except of above issues, in this article I will try to define neutrality, neutral policy and partnership. After made analysis of available documents, emphatically we can agree that partnership between NATO and Sweden exists.

Where is Ukraine going

The main thesis of article is the analyse of the socio-economic and national-politic situation of contemporary Ukraine, especially after it declared independence. The economy in the time 1991–2016 collapsed especially in the comparison to the Soviet time. It’s demonstrates by the deep fall of the industrial and agricultural production, high rate of deindustralization, the growth of unemployment and the emigration to west countries and Russia. The Ukrainian state and economy are in the deep crisis and their can’t to solve the basic internal and international problems and contradictions of the country. On the east border to Russia was broke the half open war, Crimea declared independence and joined to Russian Federation, Donetsk and Lugansk declared secession. The leading Ukrainian compradors wait the support from USA, NATO, UE, but the situation of Ukrainian state is dramatical and it’s near the category failure state, the perspective of the accession of Ukraine to EU is very long.

Artykuł ma na celu ukazanie przyczyn konfliktu na Ukrainie w odniesieniu do struktur zachodnich – Unii Europejskiej oraz NATO i ich reakcji na wydarzenia, jakie miały i mają miejsce w tym kraju, a także oczekiwań społeczności międzynarodowej i samej Ukrainy względem tych graczy. Artykuł uwypukla także specyficzne cechy konfliktu, które wskazują na jego hybrydowy charakter, wyjaśniając jednocześnie przyczyny i możliwe skutki.

Uncertainty is the notion that can be a one-word description of the state of global affairs. Tensions in the world order architecture are symptoms of its ongoing transformation. The purpose of the article is to explore the reasons, manifestations and direction of this change. The prime assumption of the analysis is the regress of the West. NATO as a strategic bridge between two centers of the West – Europe and the United States – is subjected to scientific investigation to examine its possible role in reestablishment of the relative power of the West and regaining its defining capabilities in the world order in statu nascendi. The analysis is supplemented by two scenarios of possible trajectories of world order transformation.

This article is based on the idea that it is necessary to develop a quantitative method to calculate power of international actors, which will enable scholars to analyse international conflicts. The Global Potential Power Distribution Chart, which is calculated based on three main characteristics of international actors, namely population, territory and economic power, shows “potential power of states and international organisations”. It may be called “Durmuş Scale of Power (DSoP)”. The chart is a comprehensive indicator with considerable accuracy and 100 % objectivity. In this article, potential powers of international actors have been calculated for years 1987, 2004 and 2015, which gives a clear overview of the potential power distribution (balance of power) of the World regarding states and as well as international organisations. Potential military powers of some states and international organisation in year 2015 have also been calculated. This research proves by means of a contemporary approach applied and a quantitative method developed that, the World is multipolar since 2004, and China is, potentially, the most powerful state of the World since 2015. The method introduced in this article were sufficient enough to explain the effects of the enlargement of NATO and EU, EU after BREXIT, reform of the Security Council of the United Nations and instrumental enough to provide a peaceful understanding for the self-determination issue of Kosova. There are three conclusions to this research: 1) The method “Durmuş Scale of Power” is calculated is reliable because everybody with a scientific calculator or a computer can easily calculate potential power of a state provided that he or she has reliable data for territory, population and GDP. 2) “Global Potential Power Distribution Chart” is a comprehensive Chart which shows “balance of power” at a specific year. It enables us to compare power of states and international organisations in different years. 3) It is convenient to use “Durmuş Scale of Power” while analysing issues of international relations.

The consequence of systemic and political changes in Poland involved reorientation of Polish policy in terms of perceiving security. It was reflected in newly defined policy directions which expression involved a search for the new guarantees of security. The problem of ensuring state security in new geopolitical conditions is expressed in the adopted hierarchy of priorities of implementation of the Polish national interest. The exercise of the specified policy priorities means Poland’s obtaining a solid security basis. The Polish Army, the armed forces of the Republic of Poland, has become an element of NATO’s broad security system. The implementation of the policy in this regard by the Polish government has recently been more and more unidimensional. Only cooperation with the USA is at the target of the Polish security policy. Issues related to its costs remain outside its determinants. There is no reflection on being dependent on another egoistic player.

US–Taliban: Difficulties and Prospects for Implementing the Peace Agreement

The article presents an analysis of the peace agreement signed between the United States of America and the Taliban on behalf of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. This agreement is intended to end the war in Afghanistan, in which the United States, NATO countries, and their allies are participating. The aim of the study was to answer the question: can this agreement lead to peace in Afghanistan? The main research methods were the content analysis methodology and the institutional-legal methodology.

Polish and Ukrainian concepts of security and cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe in the 21st century

Central and Eastern Europe is a region located in the context of geopolitical reorganization of the world’s wetlands. The first ideas of creating a security system in this part of the continent arose after the First World War. Among them were the Polish concept of “Międzymorze” (Intermarium, aka “ABC Seas”) and the Ukrainian idea of the Baltic-Black Sea Union. The concept of security and cooperation in the region was reintroduced with the Russian Federation’s accession to the achievement of the influence index from the USSR district. There were also problems in Polish-Ukrainian relations, differences in security strategies, the delineation of the strategic partnership and the formation of the Strategic Culture of the Territories. Countries in the region have announced a number of initiatives to improve regional security (TSI, B9, L3, or Trójkąt Karpacki). The members of the mentioned concepts should be among the geopolitical figures, the position of NATO and the EU and contestations on the part of Russia.

Security Challenges of the Kaliningrad Region

Attention is focused on the issues of national security of the state, taking into account the general development of the country and the realization of its national interests. It is noted that the interpretation of the essence of current threats and challenges optimizes the methodological substantiation of the tasks of guaranteeing the provision of national security. The characteristics of regional security are presented. Attention is focused on the peculiarities of the European region. The emergence of significant exogenous challenges in the 21st century, which represented a serious threat to the security of the member states of the European Union, was noted. The problems of ensuring regional security are outlined. Indicators are presented that have led to a significant increase in the risks of security instability in the European region and provide an opportunity for an uncontrolled arms race. The list of factors that cause the decline of the region is considered. Changes in the political situation of the United States of America and their impact on the situation in the European Union are characterized. The activation of the United Kingdom in matters of ensuring security in Europe in the context of NATO and due to the activation of bilateral relations with European countries was determined. It was noted that the aggressive position of the Russian Federation led to a significant deterioration of the security situation around Ukraine and directly in the region. Attention is focused on issues of national security of Poland in the current political situation. The cooperation of Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland to contain the military threat from Russia was noted. The aggravation of the confrontation between Lithuania and Russia regarding the provision of Kaliningrad was emphasized. It is indicated that NATO representatives are significantly concerned about the strategic Kaliningrad region of Russia. It is noted that Russia is actively engaged in strengthening its military presence. Options for actions of the NATO army in the event of an escalation of the military conflict and expansion of the coverage area were considered. It is indicated that a possible option of escalation around Kaliningrad will cause the situation to worsen. Options for confronting the aggressor country in the short term and in the format of coexistence for a longer term are considered. The influence of Belarus on the situation in the region due to the growth of migration was noted. This leads to the discrediting of Poland and Lithuania for supporting Belarusian dissidents who seek to avoid political repression. It is stipulated that the Baltic and Polish political leaders analyze the crisis through the prism of national security. The position of Poland in the settlement of regional conflicts is considered. It is indicated that the political position of Poland should be aimed at preventing the realization of an unfavorable scenario. It is noted that the priority should be the expansion of ground forces and aviation, which ensure reliable deterrence of the Russian Federation.

Illusory NATO–Russia partnership during the crisis and building superpower status of the Russian Federation

The aim of the article is to analyze the relationship between NATO and the Russian Federation. Deliberations are conducted within the institutional and historical-problematic approach. The author characterizes the institutional framework for cooperation between NATO and Russia, as well as discusses the factors which are barriers to this cooperation. Therefore focuses on the most important issues of common interest of partners, such as the problem of stabilizing the security environment, the fight against international terrorism, the use of the armed forces in foreign policy, the process of NATO enlargement and the maintaining of strategic balance between parties. The Author is skeptical about the possibility of establishing a lasting partnership between NATO and Russia. He indicates the difference between the period of the 90s of the twentieth century, when was evident weakness and submission of Russia to NATO and the beginning of the twenty-first century, when is an attempt of rebuilding Russia’s superpower in a manner unacceptable by NATO.