Analysis of the possibility of building a credit risk model

FinAi has undertaken a project focused on the development of an innovative credit risk model utilizing alternative data sources, such as data from social media platforms (Facebook, LinkedIn) and mobile phone records. This project was co-financed through the European Regional Development Fund under a funding agreement between FinAi S.A. and the National Centre for Research and Development (NCBiR), headquartered in Warsaw. The initial phase of the project involved the collection of data and their utilization in constructing a network graph of customer relationships. Furthermore, leveraging external data as well as data managed by FinAi, specific indicators were formulated. These indicators were employed under the supervision of experts to train a predictive model that incorporated graph structures. The model thus constructed was to exhibit a higher predictive capability compared to conventional models commonly employed within the industry. The study explored the feasibility of creating a credit risk model based on the acquired data and assessed the quality of data originating from alternative sources. It was demonstrated that alternative data sources were populated for a small fraction of the population, and their quality has proven unsatisfactory. The scale of the dataset proved inadequate for establishing a robust credit risk model or attaining a competitive advantage over the models in use within banking institutions.

This article presents a theoretical connection of armed forces operations and a disaster risk reduction concept. The objective is to elaborate a model of armed forces participation in disaster risk reduction in relation to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. The research method bases on a review of the literature and a cognitive design of the participation model. General role of armed forces, potential and societal expectations are factors that place them in a context of disaster risk reduction. Soldiers are said to participate in protection of the most important utilitarian values regardless of circumstances (military hazards and non-military hazards). Their operations might be ascribed into limiting of hazard power, reducing vulnerabilities, shortening exposure, improving resilience, and strengthening capacities to cope with a disaster. They can reduce the risk associated with military hazards and non-military hazards. The concept may be a reference in designing synergy in cooperation between military and non-military entities.

This paper examines the concept of risk and its importance in the decision-making process, using Russia as an illustration. Risk is presented as a complex and dichotomous category of phenomena. It can be understood as a probable threat and/or an anticipated opportunity. Referring to the theory of expected utility, I argue that the motives of decision-makers in a risk situation will lead them to rationally choose the value with the highest level of priority for the decision-maker, but not necessarily the highest in terms of actual value. Five decision-making situations confirm the hypothesis that Russia has a high propensity for risky actions: the war in Georgia in 2008, the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the violation of Turkey’s airspace by a Russian bomber in 2015, Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022 and the use of doping by Russian athletes during international championships. The conclusion extends these findings to imply that Russia is a key source of risk for the international community.