Periodization of the great Moscow-Ukrainian War  in the XXI century and probable scenarios  of its development and completion

The study aims to characterize the essence and content of the ongoing Moscow-Ukrainian war since 2014, providing the author’s options for scientific periodization and forecasts for its conclusion. The research methodology adopts a systematic approach, relying on the method of periodization in historical analysis. General scientific methods, such as historical and logical approaches, along with specific scientific historical methods like comparative-historical and retrospective analyses, are employed. The method of theoretical modeling is extensively used to describe potential scenarios for the war’s end. The study emphasizes that any periodization should meet specific criteria, like the global context. Historical parallels are drawn to enhance the understanding of the problem, and various options for the periodization of the MoscowUkrainian war proposed by other scholars are critically analyzed. The term “ATO” (Anti-Terrorist Operation) is subject to a critical analysis, assessing its impact on historical thought about the conflict. The author presents several options for the periodization of the war, categorized as “detailed” and “optimal.” The study also formulates and systematizes various scenarios for ending the war and explores its potential consequences in the context of future international relations. The research assesses the influence of the “strange” military mutiny in June 2023 on the socio-political situation in Muscovy (historical name for the Russian Federation). This assessment allows the author to formulate probable scenarios for the war’s conclusion.