International Risk Factors Occurring in the Caspian Sea Region
- Institution: Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Year of publication: 2017
- Source: Show
- Pages: 193-204
- DOI Address: https://doi.org/10.15804/athena.2017.56.12
- PDF: apsp/56/apsp5612.pdf
From the perspective of structural realism, the category of international risk can be defined as a possibility of a sudden and unexpected change which may lead to negative outcomes. The aim of the article is to analyze and show international risk factors present in the Caspian Sea region. In the context of various variables of geostrategic character, the region seems prone to potential threats. The research applied the method of the analysis of strategic narratives, which made it possible to distinguish the most important risk factors in the context of the policy followed by global and regional superpowers: 1) political factors and international strategy; 2) extracting energy resources and the geopolitics of pipelines; 3) frozen territorial and ethnic conflicts; 4) economic factors; 5) military factors. The results show that for the majority of players the lack of stability is beneficial and they do not strive to solve the contentious issues at all costs.