A “New” Middle East? Implications for Israel’s Security

The turbulent changes in the Middle East which were seen at the very beginning as good news for Israel, at the end of the day became more ambiguous. The Arab Spring and then the war in Syria that had erupted along with massive social protests ended up with regime changes, but what was crucial, the primary success of the Arab awakening was captured by Islamist movements. The changes in the Middle East were even deeper due to at least two factors – Russia „coming into” and the United States „going out” of the region. These new regional circumstances combined with the geopolitical shift in the Middle East and a crumbling American supervision made Israel conclude that its security has become more complex and the U.S has no more been the only significant great power player in the region. Hence the difficult political and military situation around Israel has created a need to adapt to security challenges and simultaneously, to take political opportunities. The goal of this paper is to highlight basic ramifications for Israeli security and diplomacy of the American and Russian factors in the current Middle East politics. The key questions are: How to secure Israeli interests in these new circumstances? How to assess, on the one hand, the risk of the ongoing decline of American interests in the region and, on the other hand, the complexity of the Russian strategy in the Middle East? Finally, whether Israel might be able to gain recognition by the Arab world, not to mention to keep its strategic domination in the region which is already being challenged by the Islamic Republic of Iran and its nuclear ambitions.

„NOWY” BLISKI WSCHÓD? IMPLIKACJE DLA BEZPIECZEŃSTWA IZRAELA

Dynamiczne zmiany, jakie zaszły na Bliskim Wschodzie, początkowo postrzegane były jako korzystne dla Izraela, ostatecznie jednak okazały się bardziej dwuznaczne. Arabska wiosna i następnie wojna w Syrii, które wybuchły na fali wielkich protestów społecznych, doprowadziły do zmiany władzy, lecz kluczowym rezultatem było to, że zostały one przejęte przez ruchy fundamentalistyczne. Zmiany na Bliskim Wschodnie były poważniejsze i głębsze przynajmniej z dwóch powodów – Rosji „powracającej” na Bliski Wschód oraz Stanów Zjednoczonych „opuszczających” region. Obie te okoliczności wraz ze zmianami geopolitycznymi w regionie oraz słabnącą dominacją USA na Bliskim Wschodzie zmusiły Izrael do przewartościowania swojej polityki bezpieczeństwa. Stąd Izrael stanął przed szeregiem wyzwań dotyczących bezpieczeństwa, ale także wobec nowych okoliczności stanowiących szansę na poprawę jego stanu. Celem artykułu jest wyjaśnienie głównych implikacji tych zmian dla bezpieczeństwa oraz polityki zagranicznej Izraela. Kluczowe pytania dotyczą: możliwości zapewnienia bezpieczeństwa Izraela w nowych uwarunkowaniach regionalnych; określenia, jakie ryzyko dla bezpieczeństwa Izraela wiąże się z osłabieniem aktywności USA na Bliskim Wschodzie przy jednoczesnym rosnącym zaangażowaniu Rosji. I wreszcie – czy w takiej sytuacji Izrael zdoła doprowadzić do zwiększenia uznania jego państwowości w świecie arabskim, a także czy będzie w stanie utrzymać swoją dominację strategiczną w regionie podważaną przez ambicje jądrowe Iranu.

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