Friends and Neighbours Voting in Local Elections in Open List System: Evidence from Poland

  • Author: Tomasz Czapiewski
  • Institution: University of Szczecin
  • ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7861-8455
  • Author: Monika Woźniak
  • Institution: University of Szczecin
  • ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4178-7367
  • Year of publication: 2021
  • Source: Show
  • Pages: 168-187
  • DOI Address: https://doi.org/10.15804/athena.2021.72.10
  • PDF: apsp/72/apsp7210.pdf

This paper seeks to extend previous analyses of localism of candidates. To our knowledge, this is the first study of the ‘friends and neighbours’ voting (FNV) effect in Central and Eastern Europe employing the data of the candidate’s exact place of residence and using dispersion of votes between electoral precincts, as in Poland votes in each precinct are counted and published separately. The basic hypothesis of the paper was that the place of residence is a factor that significantly affects the spatial distribution of votes. Using spatial autocorrelation, we identify spatial clusters of votes for specific candidates. The conducted research indicates that the intensity of the FNV effect differs between candidates. This local bonus, which in fact is the FNV effect, is an attribute of selected candidates. It can be seen that a candidate’s locality is a more important attribute influencing voting results in certain city districts, while in others it is of limited importance. This mechanism may be explained to some extent by referring to the notion of motivation to win personal votes and party strategies of the selectors. Moreover, it was proved that the spatial distribution of votes of candidates who have their place of residence in the area from which they stand for election is significantly different from the distribution of votes among non-resident candidates.

GŁOSOWANIE PRZYJACIELSKO-SĄSIEDZKIE W WYBORACH LOKALNYCH W SYSTEMIE LIST OTWARTYCH: DANE Z POLSKI

Niniejszy artykuł ma na celu poszerzenie dotychczasowych badań dotyczących lokalizmu kandydatów. Według naszej wiedzy jest to pierwsze w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej badanie efektu głosowania przyjacielsko-sąsiedzkiego (FNV) z wykorzystaniem danych o dokładnym miejscu zamieszkania kandydata oraz zróżnicowaniu liczby głosów pomiędzy obwodami wyborczymi, gdyż w Polsce głosy w każdym obwodzie są liczone i publikowane osobno. Podstawową hipotezą pracy jest stwierdzenie, że miejsce zamieszkania to czynnik istotnie wpływający na przestrzenny rozkład głosów. Wykorzystując autokorelację przestrzenną, identyfikowane są przestrzenne skupiska głosów oddanych na konkretnych kandydatów. Przeprowadzone badania wskazują, że natężenie efektu FNV jest różne dla poszczególnych kandydatów. Ta lokalna premia, jaką jest efekt FNV, jest atrybutem wybranych kandydatów. Można zauważyć, że lokalność kandydata jest ważnym elementem wpływającym na wyniki głosowania w niektórych okręgach miejskich, a w innych ma ograniczone znaczenie. Mechanizm ten można do pewnego stopnia wyjaśnić, odwołując się do pojęcia motywacji do zdobywania głosów personalnych oraz strategii partyjnych selekcjonerów. Ponadto wykazano, że rozkład przestrzenny głosów kandydatów, którzy mają miejsce zamieszkania na obszarze, z którego kandydują, różni się istotnie od rozkładu głosów kandydatów niezamieszkałych w okręgu.

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local elections friends and neighbours voting (FNV) personal votes Szczecin wybory samorządowe głosowanie przyjacielsko-sąsiedzkie głosy personalne

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