Rywalizacja Rosji i Chin w Azji Centralnej w latach 2000-2024

Russia and China’s rivalry in Central Asia from 2000 to 2024

This article examines the evolving dynamics of influence between the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China in Central Asia from 2000 to 2024. Central Asia, rich in natural resources such as gas, oil, uranium, and other minerals, has been a focus of attention for both countries. Initially, Russia maintained significant dominance, particularly in military and cultural spheres, while China expanded its presence mainly in economic and infrastructural domains, especially after launching the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The rivalry between these two powers intensified following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, which weakened Russia’s overall influence. In contrast, China has strengthened its ties with Central Asian states, bypassing Russian territory for its trade routes to Europe. Using neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism as theoretical frameworks, this article explores the balance of power and cooperation in Central Asia, as well as the role of international organizations such as the SCO, CSTO, and the Eurasian Economic Union. The study concludes that China has significantly expanded its presence in the region, while Russia has seen a decline in influence, although it remains a key player, especially in military and security matters.

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