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Systemic Geopolitical Analysis in the research of power distribution in Eastern Europe

Author: Erwin Metera
Institution: Political Science Alumni Association of the University of Warsaw
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9003-5810
Year of publication: 2022
Source: Show
Pages: 9-20
DOI Address: https://doi.org/10.15804/npw20223301
PDF: npw/33/npw3301.pdf

Systemic Geopolitical Analysis in the research of power distribution in Eastern Europe

The article presents Systemic Geopolitical Analysis, which as a scientific method can be an important tool for studying the distribution of power in Eastern Europe, supporting the assumptions of structural realism with an element of quantitative research. This region, as a place where spheres of influence and the ensuing economic and potentially military conflicts meet, is an area where the knowledge of the most precise distribution of power may be a crucial element in the analysis of the genesis of conflicts, the shifts in power distribution during their course, as well as in the prediction of future flashpoints. Being the first attempt to correlate Systemic Geopolitical Analysis with the issue of conflicts in Eastern Europe, the paper contains a hypothesis that Systemic Geopolitical Analysis is a research method that enables an effective analysis of the geopolitical reality in the region because of: 1) the conflicts occurring in the system due to differences in power distribution; 2) the nature of the components of power, measurable by the means of Systemic Geopolitical Analysis. Confirming the above hypothesis, the article points to the economic aspect, linked to the Russian natural gas exports, and the military aspect, by taking into account the characteristics of contemporary tensions in the region, which reduce the role of supra-systemic reserves.

Системный Геополитический Анализ в исследовании распределения силы в Восточной Европе

В статье представлен Системный Геополитический Анализ, который может стать важным инструментом в качестве научного метода для изучения распределения силы в Восточной Европе, подкрепляя предположения структурного реализма элементом количественного исследования. Этот регион, как место соприкосновения сфер влияния и вытекающих из них экономических и потенциальных военных конфликтов, является областью, где знание наиболее точного распределения силы может стать решающим элементом в анализе генезиса конфликтов, сдвигов в распределении силы в их ходе, а также в прогнозировании будущих очагов напряженности. Будучи первой попыткой соотнести Системный Геополитический Анализ с проблемой конфликтов в Восточной Европе, статья содержит гипотезу о том, что Системный Геополитический Анализ является методом исследования, позволяющим эффективно анализировать геополитическую реальность в регионе вследствие: 1) конфликтов, возникающих в системе из-за различий в распределении силы; 2) природы компонентов силы, измеримых средствами системного геополитического анализа. С целью подтвердить вышеизложенную гипотезу, в статье обращается особое внимание на следующие аспекты: экономический аспект, связанный с экспортом российского природного газа, и военный аспект, учитывающий особенности современной напряженности в регионе, снижающий роль надсистемных резервов.

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Системный Геополитический Анализ геополитика Systemic Geopolitical Analysis Eastern Europe geopolitics methodology international conflicts structural realism

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