Erdoğan’s Phenomenon in Turkish Foreign Policy

President Erdoğan is a colorful figure on the international arena and his actions are multidirectional and multifaceted. Hence, the aim of the article is to analyze the tactics used by Erdoğan in foreign policy and to attempt a forecast for the years 2024–2040 regarding the position of Türkiye in the world. The following methods were used: deduction and prognostic. The period from 2020 to 2022 was analyzed, and the time perspective adopted for the forecast is the period between 2024–2040. The main conclusions of the considerations are as follows. Erdoğan’s phenomenon in foreign policy is that he has built a strong expansive dangerous assertive Türkiye with global diplomatic potential which, although it does not have absolute power, is powerful enough to limit the influence of countries and institutions stronger than itself (1). Erdoğan will have a chance to turn Türkiye into a global power, or at least a state with the strength of a global power, without which no significant decisions on a global scale will be possible (2).

Феномен Эрдогана во внешней политике Турции

Президент Эрдоган – яркая фигура на международной арене, и его действия разнонаправлены. Таким образом, целью статьи является анализ тактики, используемой Эрдоганом во внешней политике, и попытка спрогнозировать положение Турции в мире на 2024–2040 годы. В работе использовались следующие методы: дедуктивный и прогнозирующий. Проанализирован был период с 2020 по 2022 годы, а временной горизонт прогноза был принят 2024–2040 годы. Основные выводы из проведенных рассуждений таковы: (1) Феномен Эрдогана во внешней политике заключается в том, что он построил сильную, экспансивную, опасную Турцию, с глобальным дипломатическим потенциалом, который, хотя и не обладает абсолютной властью, то достаточно силен, чтобы ограничить влияние государства и институты сильнее его. (2) У Эрдогана появится шанс превратить Турцию в мировую державу или, по крайней мере, в государство с силой мировой державы, без которой никакие значимые решения в глобальном масштабе будут невозможны.

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