Brazil has come in for a lot of criticism for some of the positions it has taken in response to what has been called a period of ‘permanent crisis’ in world politics. European leaders in particular have shown themselves to be perplexed about what they consider to be contradictory positions in response to two crises in particular: the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the Israeli war in Gaza in response to the Hamas terrorist attacks on 7 October 2023. Yet, the Brazilian response to these crises should not have come as a surprise. Using the conceptual frameworks of Complexity and Human Systems Dynamics, as well as complexity mapping as an illustrative model, this paper argues that the Brazilian positions to these crises are both predictable and internally coherent. What is lacking is mutual knowledge and understanding of these positions. Increasing such understanding is critical as a way of working together more effectively stopping the waste of political capital on issues over which outsiders have little to no influence.