Irak 2018 – wybór strategiczny. Uwarunkowania i implikacje wyborów parlamentarnych w Iraku w 2018 roku
- Institution: Uniwersytet Warszawski
- Year of publication: 2018
- Source: Show
- Pages: 131-157
- DOI Address: https://doi.org/10.15804/so2018107
- PDF: so/13/so1307.pdf
Iraq 2018 – a strategic choice. The background, implications and importance of Iraq’s parliamentary elections of 2018
The parliamentary elections of May 2018 may become a landmark for Iraq on both internal and geopolitical levels. This paper analyses internal and international preconditions of Iraqi parliamentary elections in the context of possible implications of the election results for the international position of Iraq and internal stability of the state. The international context is shaped by security situation in the region, the increased engagement of Saudi Arabia, American efforts to isolate Teheran and the internal situation in Iran as well as the growing rivalry between centers of Shia Islam in Najaf and Qom and the different models of socio- political organization they propose. In the internal dimension, the election results – while surprising for the establishment and the majority of observers – are the outcome of many variables: the systemic crisis related to the Kurdish independence referendum, the disputable position and the future role of the Popular Mobilization Units in the political system and security apparatus. The increasing social pressure may require the reform of the Iraqi political system. The results of 2018 elections – as well as the dynamics and nature of popular protests unfolding since 2015 – show that the majority of Iraqis that are engaged in this new social movement demonstrate an anti-interventionist attitude and support the integrity of the state. The widespread protests indicate that the status quo based on the sectarian quota sharing system adopted in 2005 is being questioned, as well as the common notion that religion and ethnicity are the main political motivations in the Middle East. This article aims to demonstrate that due to the co-occurrence of specific processes and phenomena in the international environment and in Iraq itself (in area of civic-awareness that has resulted in creation of a social movement), a process of political emancipation has begun that may lead to reestablishment of Iraq as a sovereign entity in international politics.